Chart Analysis
Prices and futures
1. Crude oil — front-month futures
WTI and Brent usually move together because both reflect the global crude market.
2. Products — front-month futures
Gasoline and diesel prices reflect crude costs plus the availability of each refined product.
If products rise faster than crude, refining margins can improve.
3. Historical futures curves
A downward-sloping curve is backwardation: nearby barrels command a premium, often indicating a tighter immediate market.
An upward-sloping curve is contango: deferred barrels cost more, potentially supporting storage when the spread covers carrying costs.
RBOB usually trades at an April premium to March as the market transitions from winter-grade to summer-grade gasoline. Summer specifications require lower Reid vapor pressure (RVP) to reduce fuel evaporation in warmer temperatures, which limits blending options and increases production costs, resulting in the seasonal price premium.
October commonly trades below September as the contract returns to winter specifications (higher RVP).
4. Brent premium to WTI
Brent generally trades at a premium to WTI. Earlier this year Brent price fell below WTI price.
5. 3-2-1 crack-spread proxy
A rising crack means gasoline and diesel are becoming more valuable relative to crude, which makes refineries more profitable.
A falling crack is the opposite.
U.S. product demand
6. Refined-product demand signals
A useful rough scale is 9 gasoline : 4 distillate : 1.7 jet, in million barrels per day. Gasoline is the largest of the three, with stronger summer consumption.
7. Gasoline demand seasonality
Demand increases in the summer and declines in the winter.
U.S. produces roughly 9 million barrels of gasoline, so supply and demand are almost balanced during peak demand season.
8. Diesel / distillate demand seasonality
Distillate reflects trucking, industry, agriculture, and heating, so its pattern is less purely summer-driven than gasoline.
9. Jet fuel demand seasonality
The summer and holiday travel periods seem to have more fuel use.
10. Ethanol-blended gasoline production seasonality
Production increases in the summer.
Refinery activity
11. Crude runs — U.S. and Gulf Coast
Higher crude runs draw more feedstock into refineries and support product output. Lower runs can reflect turnarounds, outages, or weaker margins.
Imports
12. Crude oil imports by PADD
The shale expansion reduced the need for some imported crude, especially lighter grades, but imports remain important where refinery requirements and logistics favor foreign barrels.
13. Total motor gasoline imports — PADD 1 and PADD 5
Padd 1 and 5 are the only regions that import any meaningful amount of gasoline. (Note:Padd 3 sometimes imports gasoline components like alkylate and reformate when those components are in high demand.)
14. U.S. crude oil received from Canada
Canada produces mostly heavy crude. Heavy Canadian crude and lighter domestic crude serve different refinery needs.
Exports
15. Gulf Coast product exports
The Gulf Coast supplies overseas markets as well as other U.S. regions.
Mexico is the largest destination for U.S. gasoline exports. In 2025 it received 54% of total U.S. gasoline exports, including blending components. EIA 2025 transportation-fuel exports
The Bahamas has also served as a blending location for U.S. components subsequently returned to the United States to find a loop hole for the Jones Act.
World consumption
16. Gasoline consumption by country
U.S. consumes the most gasoline by far because everyone has cars.
17. Diesel / gas-oil consumption by country
U.S. and China consume similar amounts of diesel. China uses a lot of diesel for commericial truck usage.
18. World oil consumption — annual history
China consumption has grown a lot.
Inventories and stock changes
19. U.S. commercial crude inventories
The shale era combined lower needs for some crude imports with periods of substantial stock accumulation.
Pipeline linefill counts toward reported crude inventories. Operating pipelines must remain filled, and additional pipelines can increase the oil needed within the system.
20. Crude inventory seasonality
Stocks are higher before summer.
21. Gasoline inventory seasonality
Gasoline stocks build before driving season and decline in summer.
22. Diesel / distillate inventory seasonality
Stocks fall before summer.
23. Jet fuel inventory seasonality
Stock falls during / slightly after strong travel demand months (some lag).